College Football BCS Predictions

[dlgood]

So you think I only pick fights and join wars on fandom boards? Bah!!! I figured I'd take a brief break from picking the fight elsewhere and bring it to my LJ.

Presenting Dave's Bowl Championship Series (BCS) Predictions:

BCS Standings
Rk	Team	W-L	Harris			Coaches			CPU %	BCS
			Rk	Points	%	Rk	Points	%		Prev	Avg
1	Ohio State	11-0	1	2800	1.000	1	1574	.999	.930	1	.977
2	Michigan	11-0	2	2688	.960	2	1513	.961	1.000	2	.974
3	USC	8-1	3	2458	.878	4	1373	.872	.860	7	.870
4	Florida	9-1	4	2441	.872	3	1381	.877	.800	4	.850
5	Notre Dame	9-1	5	2267	.810	5	1273	.808	.840	9	.819
6	Rutgers	9-0	7	2024	.723	8	1082	.687	.950	13	.787
7	Arkansas	9-1	6	2234	.798	6	1248	.792	.680	11	.757
8	West Virginia	8-1	8	1864	.666	7	1113	.707	.600	10	.658
9	Wisconsin	10-1	11	1678	.599	10	928	.589	.740	15	.643
10	Louisville	8-1	10	1711	.611	12	884	.561	.750	3	.641
11	LSU	8-2	9	1846	.659	9	1054	.669	.480	12	.603
12	Boise State	10-0	13	1471	.525	13	830	.527	.610	14	.554

The top two make the title game.

This week, #1 Ohio State and #2 Michigan close out their seasons playing against each other. Clearly, the winner of this game gets a spot in the title game. Given the absence of a playoff system, there will be the customary, heated debate over who gets the second spot in the title game.

Key games remaining:

• Rutgers @ West Virginia
  
• Notre Dame @ Southern California
  
• Southern Cal vs. California
  
• Arkansas vs. LSU
  
• Arkansas vs. Florida
  

Dave Handicaps:

1. an 11-1 Southern California (wins over Arkansas, Oregon, California, and Notre Dame)
   
2. a 12-0 Rutgers (Louisville and West Virginia)
   
3. a 12-1 Florida (Tennessee, LSU, Arkansas
   
4. an 11-1 Michigan (Wisconsin, Notre Dame)
   
5. a 12-1 Arkansas (Auburn, Tennesse, LSU, Florida)
   
6. an 11-1 Ohio State (Texas)
   
7. an 11-1 Notre Dame (Southern Cal, Georgia Tech)
   

Questions to fuel the controversy:

• If Southern Cal wins out, can Rutgers beat West Virginia badly enough to overtake them?
  
• Arkansas got killed by Southern Cal in the opener. Do big wins over a strong slate of SEC opponents vault them over a Notre Dame team that beats Southern Cal?
  
• Do we really want to see an Ohio State-Michigan title game, when it's a rematch of the last regular season game. If it's a game for the ages (e.g. Triple OT) does that call out for another game, or does the re-match spoil the greatness of the earlier game?
  
• Speaking of rematches, how do we possibly justify a Notre Dame - Michigan rematch given that Michigan beat ND by Four Touchdowns at Notre Dame?
  
• Or if Michigan loses to OSU, how do we vault Notre Dame over that Michigan team that beat them so soundly earlier.
  
• How much will "impressive" wins help people. What if Notre Dame shuts out Southern Cal? What if Arkansas kills Florida? What if OSU-Michigan isn't close?
  
• Can all of these teams look bad enough against each other (picture a series of 2-0 games) to allow Wisconsin, West Virginia or Boise State a sniff?

Questions? Comments? Arguments?

Comments

[alleynyc.livejournal.com]

I am spending thanksgiving with three guys watching football. Any advice? Seriously. My friend Rob re-explained the downs thing today so I'm pretty good with the rules. I think. But I'd hate to break some guy protocol.

Also, do you know who's playing? Or how I can find out?

Hugs.

[dlgood.livejournal.com]

There will be some college games on Thanksgiving, although I don't know which ones. I can tell you the NFL Schedule:

12:30 - Miami @ Detroit
4:00 - Tampa @ Dallas
8:00 - Denver @ Kansas City

As to protocol advice:

1. Don't be afraid to admit you don't know stuff, or ask questions.
   
2. Imagine that these guys are watching the games in the same way you'd watch singers and bands. Think of what people ask you about music, and how you explain music to people who aren't really experts.
   
3. Or like you are visiting in a new fandom. You are a visitor in fandom space...
   
4. Again, quesitons good. But try not to ask questions in the middle of plays. Or right before a play starts. Ask after plays end. There will be lots of downtime.
   
5. There are oodles and oodles of rules, and announcers will talk about complexity and strategy. But really, it's actually sort of simple on a basic level. Try to start by looking at the big storylines first, and let your friends fill in the details.
   

[alleynyc.livejournal.com]

I think we're doing NFL now that you mention it. I seem to remember Detroit and Dallas mentioned. I'm not getting there until about 4 so I'll be cueing in then. And thanks for the advice, particularly about *when* to ask questions. I totally would have just launched in and likely been distracting. AWESOME. Thanks so much!

[dlgood.livejournal.com]

Sidenote: Detroit and Dallas always host games on Thanksgiving.

That's my general advice anyway. You can watch how all the guys interact, and after awhile you can get a sense of how they're working and when it's good to jump in and such.

Oh, and for you to know... feel free to periodically interject with lewd comments about the players if any of them make you hot. Or if you just think it'd be funny. But try not to slash the players in front of them, no matter what homoerotic subtext you might see. That's too tricky for novices.

[alleynyc.livejournal.com]

But try not to slash the players in front of them, no matter what homoerotic subtext you might see.

LMAO.

[cornerofmadness.livejournal.com]

living here just south of Columbus, you'd think this game is the second coming. If I don't scream Go Buckeyes I might just be dead.

[dlgood.livejournal.com]

Yeah. It's like Browns-Steelers, only much bigger.

[cornerofmadness.livejournal.com]

grew up in Pittsburgh, went to med. school in cleveland. I'm still shocked I was never thrown off my 11th floor balcony

[bastardsnow.livejournal.com]

If Southern Cal wins out, can Rutgers beat West Virginia badly enough to overtake them?

No. A one-loss USC will stay ahead of Rutgers, for the simple reason that they're Rutgers.

Arkansas got killed by Southern Cal in the opener. Do big wins over a strong slate of SEC opponents vault them over a Notre Dame team that beats Southern Cal?

God, I hope so. And it really should, because all Notre Dame has done is beat #18 Georgia Tech and lose by 26 to Michigan. Also, Lou Holtz pisses me off

Do we really want to see an Ohio State-Michigan title game, when it's a rematch of the last regular season game. If it's a game for the ages (e.g. Triple OT) does that call out for another game, or does the re-match spoil the greatness of the earlier game?

We absolutely do not want the rematch. I refer you to the 2004 World Series. Nobody gave a shit, because the big one was Red Sox/Yankees in the ALCS. The 2004 ALCS was perfection incarnate, as far as baseball is concerned. Whatever comes after can't possibly match up. Same thing here.

Speaking of rematches, how do we possibly justify a Notre Dame - Michigan rematch given that Michigan beat ND by Four Touchdowns at Notre Dame?

We don't. Notre Dame hasn't done shit this year, they shouldn't be in the national championship. Hell, they shouldn't be in the top 10. The only reason they are is because they're Notre Dame. If Fresno State had the same record as Notre Dame against the same opponents, they'd be ranked somewhere around 9 or 10.

Or if Michigan loses to OSU, how do we vault Notre Dame over that Michigan team that beat them so soundly earlier.

See above.

How much will "impressive" wins help people. What if Notre Dame shuts out Southern Cal? What if Arkansas kills Florida? What if OSU-Michigan isn't close?

Well, OSU-Michigan isn't really a factor. The winner (assuming nothing insane happens) is going to the national championship. A close game can only help the loser. If Arkansas kills Florida, Florida has to drop below them, and it should be enough to vault Arkansas over Notre Dame (this is assuming Rutgers is out of the picture. I don't think an undefeated Rutgers gets to the championship.) If Notre Dame shuts out USC, they will be hard to knock off for the championship, but an Arkansas killing of Florida might do it.

Can all of these teams look bad enough against each other (picture a series of 2-0 games) to allow Wisconsin, West Virginia or Boise State a sniff?

No. That is patently impossible.

[dlgood.livejournal.com]

I just really don't want to see a one-dimensional Notre Dame team. Them vs. OSU/Michigan is going to be the Florida/Nebraska title game all over again. Their defense is a sieve.

[kalbear.livejournal.com]

The only way I can see ND anywhere near the title hunt is if Michigan destroys OSU, USC wins out aside from losing horribly to ND, Rutgers loses, Florida and Arkansas lose (which I guess would mean Florida losing to...FSU?)...and even then, I doubt it. They just have played crap teams this season or lost to the good teams they've played. They're totally undeserving.

I don't want an OSU/Michigan rematch. I'd love an OSU/Michigan vs USC game as the championship; at least it'd be a Rose Bowl type of thing.

[dlgood.livejournal.com]

Florida and Arkansas lose (which I guess would mean Florida losing to...FSU?)...

Arkansas loses it's season finale to LSU, but beats Florida in the SEC title.

[kalbear.livejournal.com]

Yeah, okay. That works and is more likely. Even then, I'd rather see a 2-loss LSU team over a 1-loss ND team. ND has really done crap, and I'd rather not see a ND-Michigan rematch or a rematch of last year's bowl.

[dlgood.livejournal.com]

I don't want to see ND either. But it's amusing how much difficulty I got in the TWOP College Football thread for suggesting a 1-loss Arkansas had a better title claim than a 1-loss ND. Hasn't anybody watched ND? THey can't stop any offense with a pulse, and they couldn't score on the few good defenses they faced.

[soundingsea.livejournal.com]

Joe only watches NFL, so I just have one question: is college ball as slashable? :)

[dlgood.livejournal.com]

Probably not. There's NFL RPS on my Flist, but no College Footbal RPS.