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Monday, October 23rd, 2006 07:20 pm
A members of my asked me the following recently:

Gods, the Redskins. Seriously, wtf is up with them? They're so manic depressive.

In short, what is up with them is that they are not very good. This is a bit of a surprise and disappointment for a number of reasons:

1. Last year, the Redskins went 10-6, and then 1-1 in the playoffs.
2. The Redskins retained most of players off their defense, the strongest unit of the team.
3. The team added several marquee players through trades and free agency.
4. The team added highly regarded offensive coordinater Al Saunders to improve scoring.
5. The team was a consensus pre-season pick to make the playoffs.

So why does this not work?

1. Weakness in the Defense. Though excellent last year, the defense had two major flaws. Inability to get pressure from the defensive line and a lack of depth. Signee Andre Carter was supposed to bolster the pass rush, but has proven too undersized to be an effective defensive end. Reserve linebacker Warrick Holdman was promoted to a starting spot, but has been an ineffective tackler - resulting in a very weak left side of the defense. Injuries to starting lineman Cornelius Griffin and corner Shawn Springs have exposed the aforementioned lack of depth as the reserve corners require help, rendering the team unable to generate pressure from a blitz.

So the formerly strong defense is now lousy. They can't consistently stop the run, pressure the quarterback, or pressure receivers.

2. The offensive woes from last year have continued. Offensive tackles Chris Samuels and Jon Jansen sometimes struggle in pass protection, a problem compounded by the lack of a pass-blocking tight end. This puts pressure on aging quarterback Mark Brunell, who is no longer athletic enough to make plays under stress. The deterioration of the passing threat allows opponents to stack the line - limiting the effectiveness of star running back Clinton Portis.

The Offense aims to compensate for these limitations with an overabundance of finesse plays - end arounds, screens, short passes, and so on... but these do not build consistent success.

3. Kicking defiency. Punter Derek Frost costs the team field position. Kickers John Hall and Nick Novak have been substandard, both on Field Goals and kickoffs.

4. Lack of discipline. Lots of mental errors, and unecessary penalties. Like the unsportsmanlike conduct calls on Santana Moss and Derek Frost.

The bigger problem is a core flaw in team construction. Imagine a franchise that read Michael Lewis' baseball treatise, 'Moneyball' and then disregarded all of the central tenets.

The key to succeeding in the NFL, in general, is to have a better collection of players than the other guy, and a system that maximizes talents and hides flaws. The salary cap adds an extra layer of complexity to this challenge.

Essentially, to win - if a team spends big money on a player, it must spend big money on a player who will play well in their system. And a team also needs to find low-salary players that can contribute effectively. This is something the Redskins consistently fail at.

Coach/Team President Joe Gibbs dislikes rookies and trusts veterans - and often trades draft picks for veterans. This is risky, as rookies are cheap and veterans expensive and more prone to injury. Chief examples among these, was the signing of quarterback Mark Brunell. In 2003, Brunell lost his job in Jacksonville mostly because he'd lost arm strength. The Redskins, traded draft picks and signed Brunell to a $42 Million dollar contract - when they could likely have waited for Brunell to be released and signed him for less money and retained the draft pick. That money could have been used on an extra player.

That money could have been used to resign veteran defenders Antonio Pierce and Fred Smoot. Letting these players go hurt team depth, and necessitated the drafting of Carlos Rogers - a talented player who fills Fred Smoot's roster spot but does not fit the team's defensive system. Recent signings such as Adam Archuleta, Andre Carter and Christian Fauria compund these problems.

But none of this is the team's worst move - the drafting of QB Jason Campbell.

Drafting a young QB to sit on the bench and learn is often a smart move. Especially, if that was a low-round draft pick. But the Redskins didn't spend a low-pick on Cambpell. They traded a First Round, Third Round, and Fourth Round pick on him - and then show no signs of playing him. So in essence, instead of having three players - two of whom could be expected to be significant contributors (All three players drafted with these picks play routinely). Given the limited salary cap and roster space - this is an untenably high investment in a resource that has, as of yet, yielded nothing.

The result - a team that has a 2-5 record, and which is as likely to collapse further as rebound to success.

THat's WTF with the Redskins.
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Tuesday, October 24th, 2006 03:13 (UTC)
Another thing to point out: In the marvelous five-game winning streak the led last year's Redskins to the playoffs, they went back to Joe Gibbs's bread and butter: a smash-mouth running game. Put the game on the shoulders of the biggest men on the field, have them open a 10 inch hole, and let Clinton Portis pound the ball through it. And it worked, and it worked fantastically.

Following the season, they hired Al Saunders, hailed by all as an offensive genius, the man who ran the best offense in football in Kansas City for however many years it was (I think 3). They bring in Christian Fauria, Antwaan Randle-El and Brandon Lloyd, pay them all boat loads of money to back up Cooley and Moss, and say "We now have the most high-powered offense in the league."

But they missed a component -- Trent Green. So it went from smash mouth football getting us into the playoffs to a focus on the passing attack with a quarterback who no longer has the tools to make the throws. They spent tens of millions of dollars upgrading a passing attack that saw Mark Brunell and Santana Moss have their best years ever, and completely ignored adding any depth at all to the offensive line.

And now, with the passing game proven to be a shadow of its former self, the team with perhaps the deepest running back corps in the league (Portis, Betts, Cartwright, Sellers and the inactive Duckett, possibly the worst trade the Redskins made), they sell out to the pass and barely run the ball.

It's not just the on-field personnel. It's a failure of coaching. Sometimes you get the players to fit the system, but sometimes you have to fit the system to the players.
Tuesday, October 24th, 2006 03:23 (UTC)
The Smash-Mouth approach worked for a few games -- largely, success was due to two factors -- not letting Brunell throw, and the defense playing remarkably well. In the playoffs, both Tampa Bay and Seattle were able to concentrate on stopping the run and the offense did nothing.

Focusing on the passing game was a nice idea, but it doesn't matter as long as you have Brunell pulling the trigger - he can't do it. Randle El is a useful player and Lloyd gets open frequently. Brunell just can't get him the ball.

Fauria is the bigger mistake - he can't block anyone. They should have kept Robert Royal - he may have bad hands, but he was far less expensive and an excellent blocker on a team that desperately needs a blocking tight end.

Oh, and if you think the Duckett trade looks bad now, keep in mind that in addition the a 3rd round pick, it also allows the Broncos the option of swapping 1st round picks if they so choose...
Tuesday, October 24th, 2006 03:27 (UTC)
Yeah, I'm aware of that swapping thing. They'll get our five or six, we'll get their... what... twenty-three? Twenty-seven? Vinnie Cerrato needs to be put in a straight jacket and taken away from the team by force.
Tuesday, October 24th, 2006 03:31 (UTC)
Yeah. We need an actual, real, NFL GM who values things like the draft and such.